September 13, 2005

STATS CANADA: Stocks of grain - July 31, 2005

Total stocks of grains and oilseeds, including commercial and on-farm inventories, remain at levels well above their 10-year averages, according to a survey of grain farmers and commercial grain holders. Total stock estimates of wheat excluding durum, durum wheat, barley, oats and canola were all up over 2004. Stocks of field peas rose to a record high, while stocks of flaxseed fell to a record low.

Farm stocks of corn in the east increased with record stock values set in both Ontario and Quebec. Farm stocks of soybeans also rose in Ontario and Quebec, with a record supply of soybeans reported in Ontario.

Total stocks of major and special crops at July 31
Crop
2004
2005
2004 to 2005
 
'000 tonnes
% change
All wheat
6080
7992
31.4
Wheat excl. durum
4291
5471
27.5
Barley
2102
3489
66.0
Durum wheat
1789
2521
40.9
Canola
609
1629
167.5
Oats
788
988
25.4
Dry peas
205
595
190.2
Lentils
38
245
544.7
Mustard Seed
92
194
110.9
Canary Seed
67
170
153.7
Flax
93
30
-67.7
Sunflower seed
25
18
-28.0

Total stocks of barley well above average
Commercial stocks and on-farm stocks of barley rose in kind to 3.5 million tonnes, a jump from 2.1 million tonnes in July 2004 and the highest level since the record 5.1 million tonnes set in 1983. The recent five-year average is 2.2 million tonnes. All Prairie provinces reported large increases of stocks on-farm. Saskatchewan led the way with a 120% rise to 1.1 million tonnes while Manitoba and Alberta farmers reported gains of 75% and 60% respectively.

Plentiful barley supplies and low prices combined with record animal numbers on farms to increase barley feeding for a second year. However, feeding of barley was limited by abundant competing supplies of feed wheat.

Note to readers
The July Farm Survey of 17,600 farm operators was conducted by telephone interviews and over the internet from July 20th to August 5th. Farmers were asked to report the amounts of grains, oilseeds and special crops in on-farm storage.
Commercial stocks of western grains originate mainly from the Canadian Grain Commission. Commercial stocks of special crops originate from a survey of handlers and agents of special crops.

Total wheat stocks rise from 2004
Total wheat stocks, which include commercial stocks, were estimated at 7.9 million tonnes this year, an increase of 31.4% or 1.9 million tonnes over July 2004.

On-farm inventories of total wheat in the Prairie provinces were up by 90.6% from July 2004 — despite substantial feeding of wheat to livestock. Farmers reported on-farm wheat stocks at 3.0 million tonnes in July, a rise of 1.4 million tonnes. Although there was considerable wheat production in 2004, the quality of the crop was poor and prices were low.

Total stocks of durum wheat rose substantially from the low level of 2004, up 40.9% or 732,000 tonnes to 2.5 million tonnes. The 10-year average is 1.7 million tonnes.

On-farm durum stocks rose in a similar fashion, up 40.6% to 1.0 million tonnes, or double the 10-year average. Farmers in the major durum producing provinces of Saskatchewan and Alberta reported stock increases from 2004 of 43.3 % and 31.8% respectively.

There were large supplies of durum wheat in 2004/05 but good quality supplies were tight. As export markets were limited by large European Union stocks which pressured prices down, and limited delivery opportunities, domestic feeding of the lower grades of durum wheat rose.


Canola stocks well above the 10-year average
Total stocks of canola were 1.6 million tonnes, up 1.0 million tonnes from the 2004 level of 609,000 tonnes. This increase places the total volume of canola stocks above the 10-year average of 913,000 tonnes for the July 31 period. Increases were reported in commercial stocks and at the Canada farm level. Increases were also reported in all three Prairie provinces, with each province reporting volumes of canola above their 10-year averages.

Canola supplies in 2004/05 were the highest since 2000/01 and it appears that farmers held their canola on farms in anticipation of better prices. Exports and domestic crush, although substantial, declined from 2003/04, leaving a massive year-end carryout.


Oat stocks on the rise
Total stocks of oats rose to 988,000 tonnes, 25.4% more than the level of 2004 and above the recent five and ten year averages. On-farm prairie stocks levels were also strong, up 25.0% from July 2004 to 775,000 tonnes. The record high on-farm stock estimate was 900,000 tonnes in 2000.

Large stocks at the beginning of 2004/05, combined with good production, led to the largest oat supplies in several years. Although a late harvest caused some quality issues and the European Union continued to subsidize oats into the United States, Canadian exports of both oats and their products to the United States rose to almost 1.7 million tonnes. The strong Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar and the large US corn crop pressured prices throughout the year, but prices were still higher than those of competing domestic feed grains. The large on-farm carryout will help to ensure adequate supplies for 2005/06.


Total flaxseed stocks lowest on record
The poor harvest of 2004, combined with strong deliveries prompted by high prices, led to an all time low flaxseed stock of 30,000 tonnes, down from 93,000 in July 2004 and much lower than the previous low of 41,000 tonnes set in 1998. Commercial stocks, and at the provincial level stocks held on farms, shared the same fate. Flaxseed exports and domestic use were limited by the low supplies and high prices.

In Saskatchewan, where most of Canadian flaxseed is grown, stocks were down 66.7% to 15,000 tonnes.


Dry field peas at record levels

Prairie on-farm and commercial stocks of field peas were at record levels. Total stocks of field peas were 595,000 tonnes, up 390,000 tonnes from 2004 and easily surpassing the previous record of 400,000 tonnes set five years ago.

On-farm stock records were also set in Saskatchewan and Alberta, with stock estimates reported at 220,000 tonnes and 80,000 tonnes respectively. Record Canadian and US pea production and a plentiful supply of other feed grains pressured pea prices down, while high ocean freight rates limited export demand at the beginning of the crop year. European Union feed pea demand later in the year prompted exports to eventually rise to over 1.9 million tonnes, however, there were still large volumes of peas carried into the 2005/06 crop year.


On-farm corn for grain stocks jump to records in Quebec and Ontario
On-farm stocks of corn for grain in Quebec rose 58.3% to 950,000 tonnes, easily passing the record set in 2004 of 600,000 tonnes. On-farm corn stocks in Ontario were up 25.0% to 1.3 million tonnes. The previous record was 1.0 million tonnes set in July 2004.

On-farm stocks of soybeans jumped in Ontario and Quebec to 185,000 from 55,000 in July 2004. At 150,000 tonnes, the estimate for Ontario soybeans on farms easily surpasses the previous record of 110,000 tonnes set five years ago.

Commercial stocks of corn and soybeans will be published in the publication September Estimate of Production of Principal Field Crops on October 5.


For further information, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact David Burroughs (613-951-5138; dave.burroughs@statcan.ca) or Dave Roeske (613-951-0572; dave.roeske@statcan.ca), Agriculture Division.