September 13, 2005 STATS CANADA: Stocks of grain - July 31, 2005 Total stocks of grains and oilseeds, including commercial and on-farm inventories, remain at levels well above their 10-year averages, according to a survey of grain farmers and commercial grain holders. Total stock estimates of wheat excluding durum, durum wheat, barley, oats and canola were all up over 2004. Stocks of field peas rose to a record high, while stocks of flaxseed fell to a record low. Farm
stocks of corn in the east increased with record stock values set in
both Ontario and Quebec. Farm stocks of soybeans also rose in Ontario
and Quebec, with a record supply of soybeans reported in Ontario.
Total
stocks of barley well above average Plentiful barley supplies and low prices combined with record animal numbers on farms to increase barley feeding for a second year. However, feeding of barley was limited by abundant competing supplies of feed wheat.
Total
wheat stocks rise from 2004 On-farm inventories of total wheat in the Prairie provinces were up by 90.6% from July 2004 — despite substantial feeding of wheat to livestock. Farmers reported on-farm wheat stocks at 3.0 million tonnes in July, a rise of 1.4 million tonnes. Although there was considerable wheat production in 2004, the quality of the crop was poor and prices were low. Total stocks of durum wheat rose substantially from the low level of 2004, up 40.9% or 732,000 tonnes to 2.5 million tonnes. The 10-year average is 1.7 million tonnes. On-farm durum stocks rose in a similar fashion, up 40.6% to 1.0 million tonnes, or double the 10-year average. Farmers in the major durum producing provinces of Saskatchewan and Alberta reported stock increases from 2004 of 43.3 % and 31.8% respectively. There were large supplies of durum wheat in 2004/05 but good quality supplies were tight. As export markets were limited by large European Union stocks which pressured prices down, and limited delivery opportunities, domestic feeding of the lower grades of durum wheat rose.
Canola supplies in 2004/05 were the highest since 2000/01 and it appears that farmers held their canola on farms in anticipation of better prices. Exports and domestic crush, although substantial, declined from 2003/04, leaving a massive year-end carryout.
Large stocks at the beginning of 2004/05, combined with good production, led to the largest oat supplies in several years. Although a late harvest caused some quality issues and the European Union continued to subsidize oats into the United States, Canadian exports of both oats and their products to the United States rose to almost 1.7 million tonnes. The strong Canadian dollar relative to the US dollar and the large US corn crop pressured prices throughout the year, but prices were still higher than those of competing domestic feed grains. The large on-farm carryout will help to ensure adequate supplies for 2005/06.
In Saskatchewan, where most of Canadian flaxseed is grown, stocks were down 66.7% to 15,000 tonnes.
On-farm stock records were also set in Saskatchewan and Alberta, with stock estimates reported at 220,000 tonnes and 80,000 tonnes respectively. Record Canadian and US pea production and a plentiful supply of other feed grains pressured pea prices down, while high ocean freight rates limited export demand at the beginning of the crop year. European Union feed pea demand later in the year prompted exports to eventually rise to over 1.9 million tonnes, however, there were still large volumes of peas carried into the 2005/06 crop year.
On-farm stocks of soybeans jumped in Ontario and Quebec to 185,000 from 55,000 in July 2004. At 150,000 tonnes, the estimate for Ontario soybeans on farms easily surpasses the previous record of 110,000 tonnes set five years ago. Commercial stocks of corn and soybeans will be published in the publication September Estimate of Production of Principal Field Crops on October 5.
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