STATS CANADA: Livestock estimates
- as of July 1, 2005


The national cattle herd surged to a record 17.3 million head as of July 1, 2005, 17 days before the United States accepted the first shipment of live cattle from Canada in more than two years.

According to the July Livestock Survey of 18,000 farmers, there were 537,000 more head of cattle on their farms than on July 1, 2004. This 3.2% gain was largely the result of limited markets for cattle.

The survey also found that hog inventories increased to nearly 15.0 million due to declining exports.

Livestock inventories at July 1
( Note: Figures may not add up to totals because of rounding. )

 
'000 head
 
Cattle
Hogs
Sheep
  2004 2005 2004 2005 2004 2005
Canada 16,758 17,295 14,838 14,976 1,238 1,226
Atlantic 295 295 358 346 48 50
Quebec 1,515 1,470 4,350 4,380 280 301
Ontario 2,308 2,300 3,690 3,725 340 319
Manitoba 1,750 1,755 2,890 2,940 82 81
Saskatchewan 3,540 3,660 1,350 1,395 160 145
Alberta 6,400 6,900 2,030 2,020 248 248
British Columbia 950 915 170 170 80 82


Survey results reflect the impact of a ban on Canadian cattle that was lifted by the United States after the July 1 survey reference date.

On July 18, the United States accepted the first shipments of live cattle from Canada in over two years. Four days earlier, a US panel of judges overturned an injunction intended to keep the border from re-opening to Canadian cattle.

The ban took effect following the disclosure of a single reported case of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE), or mad cow disease, on May 20, 2003. The border remained closed to all Canadian beef exports until September 2003 and to imports of live cattle until July 18, 2005.

The expansion of the herd slowed down compared to the year following the ban. Record domestic slaughter and reduced imports have partially offset the dismal live cattle exports.


Increase in herd concentrated in Alberta

Much of the increase in inventories at the national level can be attributed to Alberta, where cattle numbers were up 7.8% over the year preceding July 1, 2005. Interprovincial shipments of feeder cattle to Alberta rose significantly during that time.

Alberta is the largest cattle-producing province. Both feedlots and processing plants can be found there. The province is also home to many of the cattle that have been "set-aside" under a federal government initiative.

Although both Manitoba and Saskatchewan cattle inventories were on the rise, the magnitude was limited by the increased shipments into Alberta. The cattle herd in Manitoba on July 1, 2005 was only 0.3% higher than the same time last year while Saskatchewan experienced a 3.4% gain.

Cattle inventories in Central Canada declined modestly. Quebec's cattle herd shrunk 3.0% while Ontario was down a negligible 0.4%.

However, looking further back, Canadian farmers recorded 1.6 million more head of cattle on their farms when compared to July 1, 2003, shortly after the ban was imposed.

The Prairie provinces accounted for the vast majority of the jump in cattle numbers during the two-year period before July 1, 2005. Combined, those three provinces climbed by 1.4 million head, led by Alberta.

The herd expanded 10.4% in Manitoba during the two years while Saskatchewan's cattle numbers soared 13.7%. Alberta's herd size shot up 13.1%.

Cull cows retained

For the first time in July, producers were asked additional questions designed to assist in the analysis of the impact of the border closures at the farm level. Respondents were requested to provide data related to the number of cull cows on their operations along with weight break-downs for feeder cattle.

The July Livestock Survey shows that producers are holding on to cows that would normally be culled if conditions were normal. There were 914,600 cull cows in Canada, representing 13.9% of the 6.6 million cows held on farms at July 1, 2005.

Beef farmers retained 763,200 cull cows, or 13.9% of the 5.5 million cows found on beef operations. Meanwhile, dairy producers indicated that 14.3% of the 1.1 million milk cows were cull animals.

Cattle producers conveyed that 31.6% of all cows, or 2.1 million head, were over seven years of age. (In 1997, specific products were banned for use as cattle feed.) Beef cows were generally older. About 35.1% of all beef cows were over seven years of age, representing 1.9 million animals. On the other hand, dairy producers maintained fewer older animals, reporting 13.5% in this group.

Lighter animals accounted for 46.6% of the 3.1 million feeder cattle. At the other end of the scale, some 25.9% of the feeder cattle were in the heavy category.

Farmers also pointed out that well over half of the total feeder animals, or 1.7 million head, were being fed a finishing ration. The higher energy ration results in much faster weight gains meaning that these animals will be slaughter-ready sooner than if they were fed a roughage ration.

Plunge in exports following border closure

The BSE crisis has resulted in record numbers of cattle on Canadian farms. However, it has also crippled the nation's value of beef exports to the world.

In 2002, pre-BSE, total cattle and beef exports hit $3.9 billion, the equivalent of $11 million in sales each day. By 2004, the value of these exports had plunged to only $1.9 billion, less than half of the 2002 levels.

Trade has been a crucial factor for Canada's beef industry. Expansion in the industry during the 1980s coincided with freer trade, and was primarily driven by exports to the United States, Canada's largest trading partner.

Other factors have offset the drop in exports. Most importantly, slaughter has climbed to record levels. In the first half of 2005, slaughter was 6.9% above the same period in 2004 and 33.7% above the first six months of 2003. These gains were fuelled by domestic demand combined with lower levels of beef imports.

At the same time, prices for all cattle (slaughter animals, feeders as well as calves) tumbled because of the domestic oversupply resulting from the plunge in exports.

Although they have improved since the months following the ban, slaughter prices during the spring of 2005 amounted to 76% of prices last seen in the spring of 2003.


Hog numbers up as exports drop

Farmers had 15.0 million hogs on their farms as of July 1, 2005, 0.9% higher than the same date in 2004.

In the first half of 2005, exports declined to 3.8 million animals, 11.0% lower than the record exports recorded during the comparable period in 2004. Hog exports jumped following the border closure to Canadian cattle.

Even though exports dropped in the first half of 2005, they remained 18.7% above the first half of 2003 (pre-BSE). Many of the exported animals were younger hogs for feeding in the United States.

Higher hog prices, low feed costs and strong exports have benefited hog producers.

Available on CANSIM: tables 003-0004 and 003-0030 to 003-0032.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey number 3460.

For general information, contact Client Services (1-800-465-1991). To enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Robert Plourde (613-951-8716; robert.plourde@statcan.ca), Agriculture Division.

(Authored and distrubuted by Stats Canada)